Compute probability of observations given an exponential decay model The idea is that the coin before handling has 100% chance of heads, but each time it is picked up that probability will decrease (maybe it is bent by the statistician's mighty thumb). After halflife times handling it, the probability of heads is 50%, and it keeps dropping from there.
dcoin_exponential_decay( nheads, nflips, halflife, log = FALSE, possibilities = get_possibilities(nheads, nflips) )
Number of heads
Total number of flips (heads and tails)
How many flips to get to 50% heads
If TRUE return log transformed probabilities.
All possible sequences of flips that lead to the observed number of heads
The likelihood of the data (or log likelihood if log=TRUE)