Compute probability of observations given an exponential decay model The idea is that the coin before handling has 100% chance of heads, but each time it is picked up that probability will decrease (maybe it is bent by the statistician's mighty thumb). After halflife times handling it, the probability of heads is 50%, and it keeps dropping from there.

Compute probability of observations given an exponential decay model The idea is that the coin before handling has 100% chance of heads, but each time it is picked up that probability will decrease (maybe it is bent by the statistician's mighty thumb). After halflife times handling it, the probability of heads is 50%, and it keeps dropping from there.

dcoin_exponential_decay(
  nheads,
  nflips,
  halflife,
  log = FALSE,
  possibilities = get_possibilities(nheads, nflips)
)

Arguments

nheads	Number of heads
nflips	Total number of flips (heads and tails)
halflife	How many flips to get to 50% heads
log	If TRUE return log transformed probabilities.
possibilities	All possible sequences of flips that lead to the observed number of heads

Value

The likelihood of the data (or log likelihood if log=TRUE)